Twitter is now worth like half as much as it was last week
Fred Wilson has a revisionist outlook on Facebook opening up their feeds, mainly to protect his investment in Twitter. I agree that AIM started all this, but it should be noted that Twitter just finished negotiating to be purchased by Facebook - so one has to ask yourself “why didn’t the deal go down?”
A pessimistic outlook might say that Facebook danced around with purchasing Twitter to:
- a) suck their brains and see if there’s any business model there (I guess not)
- b) floated their world view and plans past Mr. Williams and Mr. Stone to watch their faces when they reacted to the news that Facebook would be opening up their feeds (I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall when the shit hit the fan this week)
- c) look at the technology and see how they’re currently scaling Twitter (which seems to have been stabilized)
But I’m an optimiist and I really don’t care about whether Fred Wilson makes any more money (or for that matter Evan Williams.)
What I care about is the open web.
I care about connecting these kind of services together. Twitter enables 3rd party developers, but insists on having a single vendor approach. I much more prefer the approach that Identi.ca is taking. Meanwhile FriendFeed is pushing the envelope but they’re ALSO a lock-in single vendor approach.
What we saw last week is the king of new age lock-in - Facebook - continue to innovate and take incremental steps towards open, on their own terms. I have been harranging them over the past year or so (privatey and publicly) and I was assured that - over time - they would come to us “on their terms.” And sure enough - they’ve stuck to their word!
Facebook Connect extends their notion of privacy into the open web. Dynamic privacy solves many issues that have worried users, government and business about our open web. Facebook’s experiments in targeted marketing will eventually grow into a game changing, personalized monetization model. Just give them time.
And their public support of OpenID is being backed up with the REAL work of figuring out solutions to our UX conundrum. ALL of this is proof that Facebook is the real dal.
Meanwhile I still haven’t seen any business models coming out of Twitter. But what I DO know is:
- Facebook is continuing to open up further, while we’re still waiting for Track to return to Twitter - and for some evidence of a business model
- Facebook shipped Facebook Connect, and has not provided access to their feeds, and APIs for uploading videos and sharing links - all game changers
- Facebook has joined the OpenID Foundation
- they’re continuing to press the innovation envelope further - which keeps MySpace honest and on their toes
All of that is a good thing.
Dare Obasanjo pragmatic analysis of the new code has already found a limitation - so we’re not done yet. But he notes that Facebook in fact will not get hurt at all by supporting OpenID.
So big shoutout of thanks to Zuckerberg on down on doing the right thing! Especially to Dave Morin and Josh Elman.
How Microsoft fits into all this and Facebook’s ultimate competitor (for smart targeted ads) Google - will be seen.
But one things for sure.
Whatever Twitter was worth last week is less than it is this week. Maybe not half, but certainly substantially less.
Tags: Dave Morin, Evan Williams, Facebook, Twitter
Add a comment
I created a facebook account, dabbled in it for a month, and then ran as far away from it as i could. I find facebook spooky. On the other hand, I have been on twitter soon after it became available and have been on it ever since. Use it all day long.
Does it have a future as a business model… i don’t know. I don’t care. But no facebook for me..ever!
I created a facebook account, dabbled in it for a month, and then ran as far away from it as i could. I find facebook spooky. On the other hand, I have been on twitter soon after it became available and have been on it ever since. Use it all day long.
Does it have a future as a business model… i don’t know. I don’t care. But no facebook for me..ever!
Twitter does not have a viable business model, but neither does Facebook. They both loose money for every new user that they acquire.
Twitter does not have a viable business model, but neither does Facebook. They both loose money for every new user that they acquire.
Developed more meaningful, interesting relationships w/Twitter friends than I have w/Facebook folks. Twitter w/Twitpic is simply a better way to communicate w/others on the go and immediately.
Developed more meaningful, interesting relationships w/Twitter friends than I have w/Facebook folks. Twitter w/Twitpic is simply a better way to communicate w/others on the go and immediately.
My company isn’t FB or Twitter. But we have a business model. And revenues are up in a down economy.
w00t!
My company isn’t FB or Twitter. But we have a business model. And revenues are up in a down economy.
w00t!
Twitter offers real people sharing real ideas, knowledge, insight, smart design, and is (so far) ad free. Facebook offers friends scribbling on walls, sending fake drinks, fake flowers, viral email redux, FLAIR and more ads than the NYC yellow pages. No contest. ….. @Nancy_White prefers a real glass of wine, and engaging in real social networking @Twitter.
Twitter offers real people sharing real ideas, knowledge, insight, smart design, and is (so far) ad free. Facebook offers friends scribbling on walls, sending fake drinks, fake flowers, viral email redux, FLAIR and more ads than the NYC yellow pages. No contest. ….. @Nancy_White prefers a real glass of wine, and engaging in real social networking @Twitter.
vanni wrote: “I created a facebook account, dabbled in it for a month, and then ran as far away from it as i could. I find facebook spooky.”
What’s even spookier is the relentless shilling of Facebook all over the internet.
vanni wrote: “I created a facebook account, dabbled in it for a month, and then ran as far away from it as i could. I find facebook spooky.”
What’s even spookier is the relentless shilling of Facebook all over the internet.
Facebook Status and Twitter don’t really compete because their social graphs are completely different. Twitter is a one-directional non-verified ‘follow’ where Facebook is by directional approval. This doesn’t really change anything until FB modifies its relationship model.
J @ http://www.sumolabs.com
Facebook Status and Twitter don’t really compete because their social graphs are completely different. Twitter is a one-directional non-verified ‘follow’ where Facebook is by directional approval. This doesn’t really change anything until FB modifies its relationship model.
J @ http://www.sumolabs.com
I find room for both Facebook and Twitter. I use Facebook far more than Twitter, but I just wrote a study in the reach of Twitter today, and I am anxious to see how it works out. I am still trying to figure out how Twitter can be most useful to me. If find it hard to follow people, and I think their search features are terrible. I still want to use it, I just need to hit a stride. Here is my recent blog post on Twitter … it may be interesting, or maybe not.
http://www.awebguy.com/2009/02/pass-the-tweet-a-twitter-usage-study-ptt/
I find room for both Facebook and Twitter. I use Facebook far more than Twitter, but I just wrote a study in the reach of Twitter today, and I am anxious to see how it works out. I am still trying to figure out how Twitter can be most useful to me. If find it hard to follow people, and I think their search features are terrible. I still want to use it, I just need to hit a stride. Here is my recent blog post on Twitter … it may be interesting, or maybe not.
http://www.awebguy.com/2009/02/pass-the-tweet-a-twitter-usage-study-ptt/
You do realize you’re contradicting yourself: “Twitter is now worth like half as much as it was last week” VS “Whatever Twitter was worth last week is less than it is this week. Maybe not half, but certainly substantially less.” Your title and your closing line are perfectlyopposite conclusions. So which is it?
You do realize you’re contradicting yourself: “Twitter is now worth like half as much as it was last week” VS “Whatever Twitter was worth last week is less than it is this week. Maybe not half, but certainly substantially less.” Your title and your closing line are perfectlyopposite conclusions. So which is it?
http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/02/07/why-facebook-isnt-poised-to-steal-twitters-thunder/
…awesome appearance on The Social Web TV show BTW! Seriously. Their format needed you to go in their and shake them up!
http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/02/07/why-facebook-isnt-poised-to-steal-twitters-thunder/
…awesome appearance on The Social Web TV show BTW! Seriously. Their format needed you to go in their and shake them up!
if a blog post would protect my investment in twitter, i’d be blogging all day instead of once a day Marc.
i wrote that post not to “protect my investment” in twitter but to celebrate what Facebook has done. it’s awesome.
did you read the post?
if a blog post would protect my investment in twitter, i’d be blogging all day instead of once a day Marc.
i wrote that post not to “protect my investment” in twitter but to celebrate what Facebook has done. it’s awesome.
did you read the post?
@fred (and Joan, too): Marc enjoys being loud, and pretends to defend your investment, then say the opposite is just his way to make more noise. Banter’s annoying, but there’s a few insights in there. I doubt investors have the patience to listen to the Gilmore gang so I’ll repeat the one, true, reasonable (!) statement that Marc made there: “Facebook opening changes the rules of the game.” Whether Twitter will be able to earn or loose from that is borderline impossible to forecast: companies make money from being able to do something exclusive, and power-users prefer having the liberty to switch. . . So this moves both validates twitter business model, and gives the bigger player in town the opportunity to steal its thunder.
Like you, I think it is a promise in the right direction: there is nothing concrete so far, and we both know the two essential features on an API is documentation and feedback, both being still hard to anticipate; and the right direction is to let people innovate — both because there are more insightful people working outside of any company then for them, and because social needs differ way beyond what a the flip-flop posse can imagine. Twitter will not win, or improve their long-term valuation, because it is able to do better than any other company, but because they understand these questions better, they have great data, and they have proven helpful to a community of users.
@fred (and Joan, too): Marc enjoys being loud, and pretends to defend your investment, then say the opposite is just his way to make more noise. Banter’s annoying, but there’s a few insights in there. I doubt investors have the patience to listen to the Gilmore gang so I’ll repeat the one, true, reasonable (!) statement that Marc made there: “Facebook opening changes the rules of the game.” Whether Twitter will be able to earn or loose from that is borderline impossible to forecast: companies make money from being able to do something exclusive, and power-users prefer having the liberty to switch. . . So this moves both validates twitter business model, and gives the bigger player in town the opportunity to steal its thunder.
Like you, I think it is a promise in the right direction: there is nothing concrete so far, and we both know the two essential features on an API is documentation and feedback, both being still hard to anticipate; and the right direction is to let people innovate — both because there are more insightful people working outside of any company then for them, and because social needs differ way beyond what a the flip-flop posse can imagine. Twitter will not win, or improve their long-term valuation, because it is able to do better than any other company, but because they understand these questions better, they have great data, and they have proven helpful to a community of users.
Get Smart! Use twitter. Dump facebook. Twitter will find a model. Facebook is the one in trouble. Facebook remains lost on the web.
Get Smart! Use twitter. Dump facebook. Twitter will find a model. Facebook is the one in trouble. Facebook remains lost on the web.
“So big shoutout of thanks to Zuckerberg on down on doing the right thing!”…. WHAO! Marc, dear! The legendary People Aggregator!!! What the hell are you doing?!?! Here is my point of view on what the girl is doing http://tinyurl.com/Old-whore-last-strip
“So big shoutout of thanks to Zuckerberg on down on doing the right thing!”…. WHAO! Marc, dear! The legendary People Aggregator!!! What the hell are you doing?!?! Here is my point of view on what the girl is doing http://tinyurl.com/Old-whore-last-strip
Although there will surely be some overlap between twitter and fb, I do not believe one will replace the other. (must admit is makes up a catchy title) The great thing about twitter is that you can follow and interact with strangers and converge on (professional) interests and topics. Entering the discussion is almost effortless. Facebook serves a different context namely the private / personal domain. I am not sure I want to be forced to mix the two.
At least at the moment since it isn’t possible to differentiate between types of feeds / streams.
Although there will surely be some overlap between twitter and fb, I do not believe one will replace the other. (must admit is makes up a catchy title) The great thing about twitter is that you can follow and interact with strangers and converge on (professional) interests and topics. Entering the discussion is almost effortless. Facebook serves a different context namely the private / personal domain. I am not sure I want to be forced to mix the two.
At least at the moment since it isn’t possible to differentiate between types of feeds / streams.
Get real people! First of all, Facebook and Twitter are not comparable. Facebook is for people you have already met. Twitter is much more suited to meeting new people and sharing ideas with people of certain similar interests. Even if facebook were to integrate a twitter like feature through opening status updates, they would not be used the same way. Second, I have to agree with author: Facebook is profitable, Twitter is a money sink. Facebook’s growth projectory in the U.S. is huge. See it passing Myspace? Its huge here in the UK, too. It’s already replaced AIM in my life and the life of most of my friends. This is the real deal. Of course, there are major barriers to its growth. While it is profitable, its questionable how it can ever extract meaningful profits (relative to its user base…). I wrote an article about why Facebook has a fundamental issue re: revenue generation. on my blog.
Get real people! First of all, Facebook and Twitter are not comparable. Facebook is for people you have already met. Twitter is much more suited to meeting new people and sharing ideas with people of certain similar interests. Even if facebook were to integrate a twitter like feature through opening status updates, they would not be used the same way. Second, I have to agree with author: Facebook is profitable, Twitter is a money sink. Facebook’s growth projectory in the U.S. is huge. See it passing Myspace? Its huge here in the UK, too. It’s already replaced AIM in my life and the life of most of my friends. This is the real deal. Of course, there are major barriers to its growth. While it is profitable, its questionable how it can ever extract meaningful profits (relative to its user base…). I wrote an article about why Facebook has a fundamental issue re: revenue generation. on my blog.