This is a reprint of an article written by an old partner of my father’s - Don Rose.  Don is an old school politician lefty liberal from Chicago - where I was raised.

Truth be told - I’m not only a third generation red-diaper baby - but I was raised on South Side of Chicago politics. I marched with Martin Luther King, Jr. - when I was 6. I protested the Vietnam War, attended the fabled Chicago Democratic convention protests and hing out with SDS and Yippies dudes. All before I was 12.

Politics was my sports. Its in my blood, so when it came to starting a career I took my lineage and applied it to software. That’s why MacroMind was focused mor eon changing teh world - than making money.

That’s why Broadband Mechanics is focused on opens ocial networking more than business models and monetizing users.

I’ve taken the idealism of my father and grandfather and applied it.

And when it comes to politics - I’m incredibly nervous about the U.S. voting on a Black man - even half of a black man - for president. Its not that I don’t want him to win, I’m just afraid someone is gonna start taking shots at him. I bet even more than one.

All this is a prelude to Don Rose’s predictions below. This guy is a pro. Old school pro. Its in the numbers. My father was a pro. he could tell you the election results of most precincts in the south side of Chicago - from 1960-1984.

Oh - and for the record - he was one of Harold Washington’;s campaign managers. Harold was a close family friend and my father REFUSED to take a paying gig - even after Harold was elected the firs black Mayor of Chicago.

Idealism, patriotism and principles run deep in my blood. And DNA.

It’s Obama: do the math! 

By Don Rose

The fat lady is about to begin her aria.
The Democratic nomination is all about the delegates, so here are the numbers prior to the Wisconsin primary and Hawaii caucus on Tuesday Feb. 19:

Barack Obama has 1,116 pledged delegates-won in primaries and caucuses; Hillary Clinton has 989, with 2025 needed for nomination. A handful is pledged to others, such as John Edwards.

There are 18 more states and territories to yet to vote, with a total of 1,078 delegates to be selected.
Of these, three big ones-Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania with a total of 492 delegates-are believed to be Clinton’s “firewall.” Let’s assume she carries these strongly with an average of 56 percent and thus gains 276 more delegates to Obama’s 216. (If there are any surprises here they will be to Obama’s benefit as his momentum can seriously reduce the spread.)

That leaves a total of 586 delegates in states where Obama is strongly favored, such as Wisconsin, Hawaii, Oregon, Vermont and North Carolina. He could win these almost as big as the recent blowouts in the Chesapeake area. Puerto Rico’s might be tipped to Clinton while the rest are at least even-but likely to go Obama. Let’s say, conservatively, he gets 53 percent of the remaining 15.

He would thus gain 311 more delegates bringing his total to 1,643 and hers to 1,540. He would lead her by almost as many as he does at this writing, give or take a few.

Then there are the 795 superdelegates, who can vote for whomever. According to the Associated Press, Obama has 163 committed to him; Clinton has 242 committed to her, though their commitments are not binding. That still leaves him ahead in total delegates with 1,806 to 1782. (This with his count underestimated and hers overestimated for the sake of caution.)

He also leads her now in the popular vote by nearly 690,000-or about 400,000 even if you include the disputed totals from Florida, which are not to be officially counted because of Democratic Party rules. (She is trying desperately to change the rules and permit the delegates she won in Florida to be counted.)

Obama is also likely to be leading her by a goodly margin in the popular vote when all the primaries are done.
Now it’s time for some 390 uncommitted superdelegates to decide. These are senators, members of congress, governors and party officials who are interested in winning the election and holding the party together.

Do they dare vote against the popular will-perhaps against their own constituencies-to help out the Clintons? Will they risk breaking up the party itself, as happened in 1968?

Fat chance.

Many dislike the Clintons or they would already have committed to the New York senator. Many party pros believe Clinton at the top of the ticket will be costly to congresspersons in marginal districts and other officials down the ballot. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has already signaled she prefers Obama.

They will also be looking at those continuing polls showing Obama running far better against John McCain than Clinton.
It’s even possible that some presently committed to her will peel away when they see which way the wind is blowing.

It is far more likely most will break for Obama-perhaps well ahead of the Denver convention, in order to have unity and good will prevail there.

They will likely find some way to seat the disputed Florida and Michigan delegations, as long as it doesn’t upset the balance of votes for Obama.

Inevitable?

I hate to use the word, since it was applied to Clinton for so long-but Obama has to be the odds-on favorite.

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