Responding to Don Park’s post on Web 2.0 Act 2
Fist of all Don - we don’t call it Web 2.0 anymore. That’s owned by O’Reilly. We call it the Live Web.
But you HAVE brought up some good points - so lets get into this - in detail. First - the post.
I’m gonna quote this entire Don Park post entitled Web 2.0 Act 2: Integration War - as it’s so close to my heart (I’ve added the #’s so I could comment on them directly - below):
Recent uproar over Kiko’s demise and conversations that followed made me laugh, hard. Is Google the new Microsoft? Nasty question. Google has to grow continuously and that growth has to come from somewhere. A better question is: will Google compete unfairly? If one considers integration leverage unfair, my answer is yes.
It won’t be so bad for a while though because all the big boys (Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, and AOL) will be competing with each other (#1) to offer the best integrated web services which means acquisitions and partnerships for small companies. But pretty soon, the picture will turn darker, making it (#2) near impossible for small companies to survive without joining one of the big boy’s integrated service network and, to succeed, companies will have to spend millions of dollars to get a prominent link on the big boy’s main page.
A network of Web 2.0 companies can’t compete with those of the big boys (#3) because there is no hub to rally around. If one somehow managed to organize and integrate all the small companies represented at the TechCrunch party, the (#4) result would confuse the users and constrain the companies. APIs? I am sure the big boys will use APIs to rally third parties to their side in the war, but the (#5) silkroad will eventually be turned into puppet strings.
It’s useless to ask whether Google is the new Microsoft. Ask instead how can small companies survive the chaos to come.
My response………………………. woe dude - you’ve hit it on the head. But that doesn’t mean we won’t TRY to work together. Best of breed, choosing sides and an intermeshed web - can all live side-by-side.
Specifics #1 = YES - offering the best integrated web services will be ‘the new black’. Everyone and his mother will do it. In fact they’ll be a market just for THAT.
Specifics #2 = I respectfully disagree. We (BBM) will thrive in that sort of environment. The trick is to design your model to ANTICIPATE this eventual state of things - which will happen no doubt, but it ain’t gonna bring us DOWN - it’ll push us UP!
Specifics #3 = YES - exactly no SINGLE hub - so sorry NetVibes and PageFlakes its not like you’re gonna win - there will be hundreds of hubs, all inter-connected together by open standards IMHO. If not 1,000s of hubs.
Specifics #4 = this issue is probably the biggest on my mind. Creating software that adapts to users, instead of asking usersa to adapt to teh software - is the solution. Thanks to Don Norman for that one. Clearly we have a HUGE educational job in front of us. But that’s OK - what else are Google and Microsoft gonna use their marketing dollars for? And just imagine Yahoo, AOL, Apple and Fox - all vying to gain the upper hand in ‘educating’ people. I love it!
Specifics #5 = yes - clearly that’s called GData. And I feel so sorry for those 4,200 Apple developers - how do they think they’re gonna survive as slaves? But the shackles to keep me in place haven’t been invented yet. Or Dave Winer. So some of us can play this chess game just as good as the big boys.
In closing - remember what John Perry Barlow used to say (he actually got this from somebody else):
As the dinosaurs are slowing walking, its the small furry creatures who have plenty of time to get out of the way, as the dinosaur’s foot reaches the ground. Who survived the Ice Age?
Innovation comes from small companies. Period. Yahoo has figured that out, and AOL is starting to - as well.
September 17th, 2006 at 1:02 pm
Back in 1991 I was working as Chief Engineer for CASI-Rusco, a company building controlled access systems (security systems). As part of my job I had developed a deep sense of the security problems for corporations (and for the world). Based on my experience I wrote a book (novel) about what I envisioned as the worst security disaster the world could face. I also addressed what needs to be done to keep society going.
The novel was written with its own display software and the text was compressed to allow it all to fit on a 5.25 inch floppy disk and run under Microsoft DOS. The total file was 261 Kbyte. The file is downloadable from my website http://www.germwar1.com.
Since its designed to run under DOS the following steps are needed to run it under Windows XP:
1. Down load the germwar1.exe file from the website http://www.germwar1.com.
Note: I downloaded it into a directory on my C: drive with the name GW1
2. Click on the start button on Windows
Click on run
Enter command and click on OK
Enter cd c:\gw1 -note this is the directory where I downloaded germwar1.exe
Enter germwar1.exe
3. Thats it. Read the novel and see if you think this is a probable event.
What I would like to do now is to build up a system that would allow the world to cope with this type of event and to keep civilization going. This system will come from small companies…
October 8th, 2006 at 6:30 pm
[...] Don Park left a comment letting us know about his novel. He’d love for you to download it, read it and tell us what you think. Is it possible? [...]
October 24th, 2006 at 10:12 pm
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October 24th, 2006 at 10:12 pm
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